1. NAME AND TITLE

TAM3: Demonstrates Monte Carlo Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis.

2. CONTRIBUTOR

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

3. CODING LANGUAGE AND COMPUTER

PASCAL; IBM PC.

4. NATURE OF PROBLEM SOLVED

TAM3 was written to demonstrate the use of Monte Carlo methods of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a simple model of radium contamination in a lake.

5. METHOD OF SOLUTION

The system being simulated consists of three components: water, sediments and fish. Once the transfers between these components are defined, the equations are solved to steady state via matrix inversion methods; and the concentrations of radium in water, fish and sediments are calculated.

TAM3 is structured so that the parameters for a given scenario may be interactively entered into the program and the set of parameters saved in a disk file. The uncertainty analysis is performed by selecting random values for each parameter from the frequency distributions that have been specified, simulating the system to obtain the unique set of predictions associated with this set of parameters, and statistically summarizing the results. Sensitivity analysis is performed in a similar manner except that the parameters are all varied by a uniformly small amount.

6. RESTRICTIONS OR LIMITATIONS

None noted.

7. TYPICAL RUNNING TIME

The program is interactive and response time is very fast.

8. COMPUTER HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS

The code runs on IBM PC's and compatibles.

9. COMPUTER SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS

The code is written in Turbo Pascal, version 3.0 of Borland International.

10. REFERENCE

Robert H. Gardner, TAM3: A Program Demonstrating Monte Carlo Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis, ORNL/M-517 (April 1988).

11. CONTENTS OF CODE PACKAGE

Included are the referenced document and one DS/DD (360 K) 5.25 inch diskette which includes source files, an executable file, and sample input and documentation.

12. DATE OF ABSTRACT

May 1991.