1. NAME AND TITLE

RISKAP: Analysis of Increased Risk to Arbitrary Populations.

2. CONTRIBUTOR

Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.

3. CODING LANGUAGE AND COMPUTER

Fortran IV, IBM 3033.

4. NATURE OF PROBLEM SOLVED

RISKAP estimates risk to a population exposed to radioactivity. Risk is measured in terms of the expected number of premature deaths resulting from radiogenic cancers, the number of years of life lost as a result of these deaths, and the average number of years of life lost per premature death. RISKAP accommodates latency and plateau periods that vary with age at exposure and risk functions that vary with age at exposure as well as time after exposure.

5. METHOD OF SOLUTION

The user defines a population by specifying its size and age distribution at reference time zero, its subsequent age-specific mortality rates assuming no radiogenic deaths, and its subsequent birth rates. Radiation doses that may vary with age and time are also assigned by the user. These doses are used to compute an annual, age-specific risk of premature cancer death, based on a dose-response function selected by the user. Calculations of premature radiation deaths, deaths from all causes, and new age distribution of the population are performed for one-year intervals. The population is tracked over any specified period. This version of RISKAP allows the use of a linear, quadratic, or linear-quadratic dose-response function. The user may substitute any preferred dose-response function by editing the code.

6. RESTRICTIONS OR LIMITATIONS

None noted.

7. TYPICAL RUNNING TIME

On the IBM 3033, the sample problem took about 6 seconds, including compilation and linking.

8. COMPUTER HARDWARE REQUIREMENTS

RISKAP runs on the IBM 3033.

9. COMPUTER SOFTWARE REQUIREMENTS

The code is written in Fortran IV. RSIC used Version 2.0 of the IBM VS Fortran 77 compiler.

10. REFERENCE

R. W. Leggett, "RISKAP, A Computer Code for the Analysis of Increased Risk to Arbitrary Populations," ORNL/TM-9910 (June 1986).

11. CONTENTS OF CODE PACKAGE

Included are the referenced document and one (1.2MB) DOS diskette containing the source code, input and output.

12. DATE OF ABSTRACT

September 1988.